Analyzing the Postseason Chances of the Boston Red Sox in 2017

August 4, 2017 connorlocke Leave a comment

The trade deadline came and went, and it is time to make a mid-season assessment of the 2017 Boston Red Sox. Boston entered this season with high expectations, especially given their offseason acquisition of ace Chris Sale from the White Sox. Ideally, they believed that an improved rotation would make up for the loss of David Ortiz’s power bat, if not his identity in the club house. Going into the season, the team was built to improve upon their pathetic performance in last year’s ALDS where they got swept by the Cleveland Indians. However, with the trade deadline deals made by the Yankees, the AL East is far from locked up. I have to put stock in the fact that the team is in first place, one game ahead of a New York team that is surprisingly contending far earlier than people expected. That being said, I am not ready to buy into this team. This year’s Red Sox have failed to show any improvement from last year, which is not entirely surprising given the loss of Big Papi. With one of the best starting rotations (on paper) in baseball and only one major loss from last year, it is not crazy to expect Boston to be in the ALCS. However, given their play thus far, it seems more likely that we will see a repeat of last year down the stretch as opposed to a World Series run.

The Strengths

The Starting Rotation

Going into the season, the Red Sox had one of the best rotations in baseball. The acquisition of Chris Sale added dominance to last year’s group, headlined by 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and an above average David Price. Despite high exceptions in spring training, the Sox are lucky to be seeing continued strong pitching performances from their rotation. After going on the disabled list in the spring, it seemed as if it was only a matter of time until David Price was shut down for the season to get Tommy John surgery. Instead, Price returned to the mound in May, and since then has pitched better than last year, with a 3.39 ERA and increased velocity on his fastball. In his first year in Boston, Chris Sale has been dominant, with a 2.70 ERA and 216 strikeouts (12.7 strikeouts per nine innings). His success, furthermore, has overshadowed Porcello’s horrible season. Last year’s Cy Young winner has had few bright moments all season, with a 5-14 record and a 4.70 ERA. Up to this point in the year, Porcello has been the only negative in the rotation for the Red Sox. Drew Pomeranz has had a surprisingly successful 2017 season with a 10-4 record and a 3.46 ERA. Despite the struggles of Porcello, the starting pitching remains the best part of this Red Sox team. However, come playoff time, more questions will arise about the rotation. Currently, the only Red Sox starting pitcher to win a postseason start is Doug Fister, who is soon to be released or designated for assignment. While I have confidence in Sale on the mound in the regular season and playoffs, this team will need more than just Chris Sale to propel them to the ALCS.

Closer – Craig Kimbrel

This year, the Red Sox have not only the best starting pitcher in the game, but also the best closer. After facing issues with control and pitching in non-save situations in 2016, Kimbrel has silenced critics with a phenomenal year. He is currently boasting a 1.61 ERA with 25 saves and a 0.672 WHIP. Even more impressive has been his improved control. He is issuing just 1.6 walks per nine innings, compared to 5.1 last season and 10.13 strikeouts per walk, compared to 2.77 from last year. Furthermore, he has developed an ability to pitch in the eighth inning. His presence at the end of games has helped shore up an otherwise mediocre bullpen.

Question Marks

The Rest of the Bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen has put up great numbers this season. They currently rank third in the majors in ERA, fourth in losses and sixth in batting average against. While these numbers indicate a bullpen which is dominant beyond just one closer, it is not really the case. Aside from Kimbrel, the Red Sox’ pen is mostly mediocre. As long as Kimbrel remains lights-out, the bullpen should continue to perform decently. However, the bullpen is currently devoid of an eighth inning reliever, which may hinder potential success in October. This is an issue created by the fact that the bullpen help acquired by team president Dave Dombrowski is injured. Tyler Thornburg needed season-ending surgery and Carson Smith has yet to step on the mound. In order to create buzz in the postseason, Boston must find an effective eighth inning reliever to take some pressure off of Kimbrel. The Sox made a move to help fill that eighth inning hole at the deadline, acquiring Addison Reed from the Mets. Reed could be a legitimate eighth inning reliever, boasting a 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. However, there should be questions concerning how his move from the National League to the more offensively prolific American League will impact his performance. In his first game in a Boston uniform, Reed was handed the ball in the eighth, only to give up a solo home run to Carlos Santana.

Designated Hitter – Hanley Ramirez

This season, Hanley Ramirez was given the impossible task of replacing David Ortiz’s presence in the Sox lineup. Thus far, his season has been a failure. His performance is closer to that of his abysmal 2015 season than that of last year, when he helped lead the Red Sox into the postseason with his hot second half. He is currently batting .253 (he batted .249 in 2015 and .286 in 2016) with 17 home runs and 42 RBI. However, it’s not just Hanley. The entire Red Sox team has failed to replicate their offensive production from last year. Currently, there is only one player hitting above .300 (Dustin Pedroia). The team ranks 28th in the majors in home runs, 24th in slugging, 19th in OPS, 16th in RBI, and 12th in runs. The team has an issue with offensive production, and it starts at designated hitter. I do not rule out Hanley turning things around in the second half of the season — Last year, it was his production in the second half that helped carry the Red Sox into the postseason. However, at the DH position, Hanley seems less invested in the team’s performance than he did while playing first base. If the current offensive woes are to turn around, Hanley Ramirez will have to increase his production at DH.

Overall Assessment

Without a doubt, the Red Sox have enough talent in their roster to make a run at a title this season. First of all, they certainly have the pitching to get them there. Additionally, it seems that all of their problems can be solved internally, meaning that their deadline performance won’t be a massive factor. Carson Smith’s potential return would help solidify the bullpen in the eighth inning, although I do not trust that he can be effective this season. In October, the Red Sox may look for Kimbrel to take the eighth inning in closeout games, a move which has worked so far this season. As far as the offense goes, this team has enough talent between Betts, Bogaerts, Ramirez, Bradley, Pedroia and Benintendi to make some noise. There is a good chance that Betts, Bogaerts or Ramirez finds their power in the second half. Even more favorably, this team does not need to score 6+ runs every night like they did last season in order to win. Behind an extremely talented pitching staff, they should be able to contend as long as the team is able to manufacture runs and hit for power in key situations.

basketball

Are the Timberwolves Finally Legit?

August 3, 2017 aknighton12 Leave a comment

It is well known to basketball enthusiasts that in recent history, the Western Conference has been far stronger that the East. The Golden State Warriors are coming off of their second championship in three years and show no signs of slowing down. The San Antonio Spurs always seem to find the right players to fit in their system that make them perennial contenders. Houston has added a floor general in Chris Paul to team up with the MVP runner-up, James Harden. Paul George was traded to the Thunder to share the floor with “Mr. Triple Double”, Russell Westbrook. Portland has a premier back-court with Damian Lillard leading the way. The Memphis Grizzlies, who are usually in the mix, come playoff time, have a way of slowing down their opponents to play at their own speed.

Teams like the Grizzlies will definitely make the path for Western Conference teams tougher.

However, the pressing question throughout the Western Conference is, are the Minnesota Timberwolves legit? Have they added the right pieces to make their roster complete and make a real push for the NBA title? Nobody denies the potential of the Timberwolves if they can keep Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns on the roster. Now, they’ve added one of the best two-way players in the league, Jimmy Butler, a move that could certainly increase their chances of making the playoffs this season.

When the trade came through on draft night, head coach and President of Basketball Operations Tom Thibodeau was reunited with one of his former players. Butler had played for Thibodeau for four years in Chicago. Butler was the rising star, coexisting with Derrick Rose, to fill out the back-court. When Butler was traded for Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn, two young players with some potential, it was clear to most analysts and NBA fans that Minnesota got the better end of the deal. Thibodeau and Butler won a gold medal for Team USA together in the Olympics last summer. They had a great run in Chicago. They reached the playoffs all four years and Butler won the 2014-2015 NBA’s Most Improved Player Award, which doubled as Thibodeau’s final season in Chicago. It was clear that Thibbs was in favor of a reunion with Jimmy Butler, so he convinced management to make a move and go get the three-time all-star.

Jimmy is a special player. He is one of the best two-way players in the NBA, being a great perimeter defender as well as a capable scorer. Each year, Butler continues to improve as one of the league’s top players. Towards the end of his career in Chicago, Butler took on the leadership role for the team, averaging 23.9/6.2/5.5. Derrick Rose, having never returned to the MVP-caliber player he once was, got traded to the New York Knicks at the end of the 2015-2016 season. This forced Butler to assume that leadership role. It gave Butler the opportunity to be “The Guy” for the Bulls. The last few years that Rose and Butler were teammates, there had been reports of the two not getting along. Regardless, Butler still led the team to the NBA playoffs as the eighth seed in 2017. They faced the top seeded Boston Celtics and held a 2-0 lead in the series before Boston came back and won four straight. Overall, it was somewhat of a frustrating season for the Chicago Bulls. They had veterans Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo mixed with a young group of mid-level talent. Following a few locker room arguments that got blown out of proportion and a regular season record that most likely displayed an underachieving year, it was time for Butler to get a fresh start. Butler is under contract until 2020, giving the Timberwolves a few seasons to build around and the already established core.

Another piece that Minnesota added was point guard Jeff Teague. The eight-year veteran is coming off just a single season with the Indiana Pacers, in which he averaged 15.3/4.0/7.8 per game. Teague helped the Pacers claim the seventh seed in the playoffs. They eventually got swept by Cleveland, but there were a few games that could have gone either way. Before the ’16-’17 season, Teague spent his first seven years in Atlanta playing for the Hawks. He’s had a solid career as a guy who can knock down shots, run the offense and spread the ball. He also comes with ample playoff experience and even made an all-star appearance. He’s not necessarily going to take over a game, but he’s a solid point guard who could be considered an upgrade from Ricky Rubio. He will work well with Butler and Wiggins. Teague is locked up until the summer of 2020, when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Karl-Anthony Towns recently had another spectacular season. He finished the starting all 82 games, and continued to improve with 25.1/12.3 numbers on 54% shooting, and averaged 3.6 offensive rebounds to go along with 1.3 blocks per game. His name has continuously been thrown around by many NBA analysts and reporters as the player that they would personally choose to build a team around. He is athletic and effective on both sides of the ball. The seven-footer has been compared to Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Pelicans and Amar’e Stoudemire back when he was a monster for the Phoenix Suns. If he stays healthy like he has in his first two seasons, Towns will become one of the all-time great big men in NBA history. KAT is locked up for the next two seasons before becoming a restricted free agent. Minnesota would like to offer him a huge extension before that 2019 summer. I can’t imagine that they wouldn’t match any offer that Towns received from another team.

Andrew Wiggins has had a nice start to his career. Last season, he averaged 23.6/4.0/2.3. Like Towns, Wiggins started all 82 games. In fact, he has only missed one game in his three-year career. Wiggins is a long, athletic small forward that is willing to take on tough assignments on the defensive end. However, his defensive ability has indeed been questioned as of late, and he must step up in that regard. He matches up well with offensive superstars like Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Kevin Durant. Wiggins has one more year on his contract before becoming a restricted free agent. Much like Towns, expect the Timberwolves to make a strong effort in persuading Wiggins to sign an extension before he can test the free agent market.

One of the other additions they T-Wolves made was signing former sixth-man of the year, Jamal Crawford. Crawford is a crafty dribbler and elite scorer. He averaged 12.3 PPG on 26 minutes per game last season. The 37-year-old will add a much-needed veteran presence to the young locker room. He will most likely be one of the primary ball handlers down the stretch in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota also added Taj Gibson, who will add 10 points and 6 rebounds a game. Gibson is coming off of a season where he started with the Chicago Bulls and finished with the Oklahoma City Thunder. During his 23-game stint in OKC, Gibson saw his numbers drop slightly due to the fact that he had to figure out his role down low with Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. Gibson is generally utilized for his defensive contributions and his toughness that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet, anyway. Gibson is an eight-year veteran that has played with a few superstars throughout his career. This season, he will be reunited with Jimmy Butler and Tom Thibodeau.

In recent news, there has been talk of Kyrie Irving wanting to team up with Jimmy Butler in Minnesota. It stems from Butler and Irving’s great relationship that they built while they were teammates on Team USA. I would love to see Irving on the same court as Butler, Towns and Wiggins. However, I believe that the Timberwolves would not be able to acquire Irving without giving away established and vital pieces, which would generally have to include one of their three stars. One of the trade talks drummed up by the media mentioned sending Wiggins back to Cleveland. Wiggins was initially drafted by Cleveland in 2014, but was then part of the trade that sent Kevin Love to the Cavaliers. Another trade scenario revolved around adding Teague to the trade package. He can’t be dealt until December, so that doesn’t look like it is going to happen.

I think that the Timberwolves are a much stronger team since adding Butler, Teague and the other pieces. This group has at least a two-year window before contracts start expiring. If they can keep the core players together, Minnesota could be a real contender in the years to follow. I could imagine the Timberwolves claiming the fifth or sixth seed in the West, and even better if they gel together in their first season. I think that if they can match up with the Houston Rockets, it would be their best chance of advancing to the Western Conference semifinals. However, if they match up against Golden State or San Antonio, I don’t believe that they have a deep enough bench to overcome those already established teams.

The future is bright in Minnesota. They have a great young core. Tibbs is a players’ coach. If they were in the Eastern Conference, I would put them in contention with Cleveland and Boston to advance to the finals. Unfortunately for them, their path to the NBA finals is extraordinarily tough due to the competition out West.