Category Archives: baseball

Analyzing the Postseason Chances of the Boston Red Sox in 2017

The trade deadline came and went, and it is time to make a mid-season assessment of the 2017 Boston Red Sox. Boston entered this season with high expectations, especially given their offseason acquisition of ace Chris Sale from the White Sox. Ideally, they believed that an improved rotation would make up for the loss of David Ortiz’s power bat, if not his identity in the club house. Going into the season, the team was built to improve upon their pathetic performance in last year’s ALDS where they got swept by the Cleveland Indians. However, with the trade deadline deals made by the Yankees, the AL East is far from locked up. I have to put stock in the fact that the team is in first place, one game ahead of a New York team that is surprisingly contending far earlier than people expected. That being said, I am not ready to buy into this team. This year’s Red Sox have failed to show any improvement from last year, which is not entirely surprising given the loss of Big Papi. With one of the best starting rotations (on paper) in baseball and only one major loss from last year, it is not crazy to expect Boston to be in the ALCS. However, given their play thus far, it seems more likely that we will see a repeat of last year down the stretch as opposed to a World Series run.

The Strengths

The Starting Rotation

Going into the season, the Red Sox had one of the best rotations in baseball. The acquisition of Chris Sale added dominance to last year’s group, headlined by 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and an above average David Price. Despite high exceptions in spring training, the Sox are lucky to be seeing continued strong pitching performances from their rotation. After going on the disabled list in the spring, it seemed as if it was only a matter of time until David Price was shut down for the season to get Tommy John surgery. Instead, Price returned to the mound in May, and since then has pitched better than last year, with a 3.39 ERA and increased velocity on his fastball. In his first year in Boston, Chris Sale has been dominant, with a 2.70 ERA and 216 strikeouts (12.7 strikeouts per nine innings). His success, furthermore, has overshadowed Porcello’s horrible season. Last year’s Cy Young winner has had few bright moments all season, with a 5-14 record and a 4.70 ERA. Up to this point in the year, Porcello has been the only negative in the rotation for the Red Sox. Drew Pomeranz has had a surprisingly successful 2017 season with a 10-4 record and a 3.46 ERA. Despite the struggles of Porcello, the starting pitching remains the best part of this Red Sox team. However, come playoff time, more questions will arise about the rotation. Currently, the only Red Sox starting pitcher to win a postseason start is Doug Fister, who is soon to be released or designated for assignment. While I have confidence in Sale on the mound in the regular season and playoffs, this team will need more than just Chris Sale to propel them to the ALCS.

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Closer – Craig Kimbrel

This year, the Red Sox have not only the best starting pitcher in the game, but also the best closer. After facing issues with control and pitching in non-save situations in 2016, Kimbrel has silenced critics with a phenomenal year. He is currently boasting a 1.61 ERA with 25 saves and a 0.672 WHIP. Even more impressive has been his improved control. He is issuing just 1.6 walks per nine innings, compared to 5.1 last season and 10.13 strikeouts per walk, compared to 2.77 from last year. Furthermore, he has developed an ability to pitch in the eighth inning. His presence at the end of games has helped shore up an otherwise mediocre bullpen.

Question Marks

The Rest of the Bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen has put up great numbers this season. They currently rank third in the majors in ERA, fourth in losses and sixth in batting average against. While these numbers indicate a bullpen which is dominant beyond just one closer, it is not really the case. Aside from Kimbrel, the Red Sox’ pen is mostly mediocre. As long as Kimbrel remains lights-out, the bullpen should continue to perform decently. However, the bullpen is currently devoid of an eighth inning reliever, which may hinder potential success in October. This is an issue created by the fact that the bullpen help acquired by team president Dave Dombrowski is injured. Tyler Thornburg needed season-ending surgery and Carson Smith has yet to step on the mound. In order to create buzz in the postseason, Boston must find an effective eighth inning reliever to take some pressure off of Kimbrel. The Sox made a move to help fill that eighth inning hole at the deadline, acquiring Addison Reed from the Mets. Reed could be a legitimate eighth inning reliever, boasting a 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. However, there should be questions concerning how his move from the National League to the more offensively prolific American League will impact his performance. In his first game in a Boston uniform, Reed was handed the ball in the eighth, only to give up a solo home run to Carlos Santana.

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Designated Hitter – Hanley Ramirez

This season, Hanley Ramirez was given the impossible task of replacing David Ortiz’s presence in the Sox lineup. Thus far, his season has been a failure. His performance is closer to that of his abysmal 2015 season than that of last year, when he helped lead the Red Sox into the postseason with his hot second half. He is currently batting .253 (he batted .249 in 2015 and .286 in 2016) with 17 home runs and 42 RBI. However, it’s not just Hanley. The entire Red Sox team has failed to replicate their offensive production from last year. Currently, there is only one player hitting above .300 (Dustin Pedroia). The team ranks 28th in the majors in home runs, 24th in slugging, 19th in OPS, 16th in RBI, and 12th in runs. The team has an issue with offensive production, and it starts at designated hitter. I do not rule out Hanley turning things around in the second half of the season — Last year, it was his production in the second half that helped carry the Red Sox into the postseason. However, at the DH position, Hanley seems less invested in the team’s performance than he did while playing first base. If the current offensive woes are to turn around, Hanley Ramirez will have to increase his production at DH.

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Overall Assessment

Without a doubt, the Red Sox have enough talent in their roster to make a run at a title this season. First of all, they certainly have the pitching to get them there. Additionally, it seems that all of their problems can be solved internally, meaning that their deadline performance won’t be a massive factor. Carson Smith’s potential return would help solidify the bullpen in the eighth inning, although I do not trust that he can be effective this season. In October, the Red Sox may look for Kimbrel to take the eighth inning in closeout games, a move which has worked so far this season. As far as the offense goes, this team has enough talent between Betts, Bogaerts, Ramirez, Bradley, Pedroia and Benintendi to make some noise. There is a good chance that Betts, Bogaerts or Ramirez finds their power in the second half. Even more favorably, this team does not need to score 6+ runs every night like they did last season in order to win. Behind an extremely talented pitching staff, they should be able to contend as long as the team is able to manufacture runs and hit for power in key situations.

MLB Trade Deadline Moves that Won’t Happen but Should Happen

With the trade deadline right around the corner, we are going to be seeing a lot of faces in new places (as ESPN likes to say). Even though many players are going to have new homes come August 1st, there will still be players who won’t move but definitely should go to new teams; but they won’t, due to their superstar status, their astronomical salary, or due to the price that must be given up to get them. Here is a list of players (and one team) that I would like to see traded but most likely won’t move a muscle:

Manny Machado (BAL)

The young superstar is having a lackluster season for the O’s, hitting only .238 with 18 HR and 47 RBI. His homerun and RBI numbers aren’t really that far off from his normal self, but his average is what’s killing him. Machado has become a star in this league due to his ability to not only hit 35 HR and 90 RBI, but to do so while also being a career .284 hitter. To have both that power and consistency at the plate is something that very few in this league can accomplish. But the Orioles are currently in selling mode, showing that they are most likely trying to rebuild the franchise with youth. The problem with this is that Machado only has one year left on his current contract before he hits free agency, and chances are, he isn’t going to be resigning with Baltimore. If the Orioles were smart, they would trade him and get something in return while they still can. They can do this next Summer too, but his value would amount to less because he would only be a rental. Comparable to the Cleveland Cavaliers’ predicament with Kyrie Irving.

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Marcus Stroman (TOR)

The Blue Jays have been to the ALCS in each of the past two seasons, carried by extremely offensive-minded teams. Marcus Stroman, though, has been a very good pitcher for this team since coming up in 2014. His career ERA might not be easy on the eyes (3.91), but it’s only due to a down season in 2016. He has come back this season strong with a 3.10 ERA and shown the league that he is a top-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. He is under team control until 2020, which enhances his value even more. The Blue Jays are getting old and are showing that age this season. Toronto had its chances at the championship for two seasons and failed to capitalize. Now, they need to sell off their pieces and rebuild this team – starting with Stroman. His performance, along with the fact that he is under team control for another three seasons makes his value extremely high and would get the Blue Jays a haul of talented, young prospects who they can use to start rejuvenating this franchise.

Roberto Osuna (TOR)

Another young pitcher for Toronto, this closer has been absolutely dominating since coming into this league in 2015 as a 20-year-old. To say the youngster is a stud is an understatement. He has a career 2.51 ERA and .885 WHIP. Like Stroman, Osuna is under team control until 2021 but is eligible for arbitration this season, where he is likely to command a huge salary. It doesn’t make sense for the Blue Jays to pay him this large salary when they are a last place team. They need to trade Osuna when his value is astronomically high (like it is now) and get a plethora of prospects to help replace the aging players on this team in return.

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Jose Abreu (CHW)

The White Sox have made it clear that they are sellers by trading away Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle. Abreu should be next on their roster to move. He is their third-oldest position player in a franchise that wants to get younger. Moving the 30 year-old who is having a stellar hitting year with .294 with 16 HR and 59 RBI, would get Chicago more prospects to go alongside Yoan Moncada and the prospects they received from the Yankees. To make him even more valuable, he is under team control for another two seasons, which is a big bonus for a player of his caliber. His name isn’t being thrown around very much right now, but he would certainly help most contenders this year.

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

I know. His name is all over the papers as the Marlins are trying to get rid of his exorbitant contract. The issue is that no other team in the majors wants it either. Stanton is making at least $25 million between now and 2028 (when he is 38 years old). To put that into perspective, that’s the same deal A-Rod took with the Yankees, and by the end of it, every Yankee fan was cursing his name. It makes no sense for any team to want to take on that deal and pay Stanton that much money for the next decade. Yes, right now, he is worth it. Stanton is an incredible player and a physical specimen. But think about this deal in five years. Stanton will be 33 and making $32 million. I can guarantee that he will not be putting up the numbers he is now when he is 33. Nobody does. He is in the prime of his career right now and he was smart. He saw a chance to make an obscene amount of money and he took it. But no team will take on this contract unless they get a lot of help from the Marlins, and I don’t see that happening. At least not this year.

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Miami Marlins

I wanted to put Stanton in his own category because he is a vey special case compared to the rest of this team. The Marlins have made it known that much of their team is up for sale – and I would love to see them go. Miami has a lot of young talent that can go to other teams and make a big difference. Marcel Ozuna (26) is having an amazing year, hitting .315 with 23 HR and 70 RBI. His teammate Christian Yellich (25) is a great young hitter and can develop power if he were to bulk up at bit. Dee Gordon (29) could also have a huge impact with his speed and defensive range for a contender. Finally, Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has already established himself in the majors despite his age. He is a career .285 hitter; you don’t see that every day from a catcher. I don’t think many of these guys are going to move, but look out for Yellich as he has had his name thrown around quite a bit the past few days.

Matt Harvey (NYM)

As a Mets fan, I have to put this in here. I know he is not going to be traded due to his terrible trade value right now, but it needs to be said that he needs to get out of the Mets organization. Harvey had two very good seasons for the Mets where he helped lead them to the World Series in 2015 as an ace of the staff (alongside Jacob DeGrom). Since then, he has been nothing but trouble for the Mets including the time where he lied about not coming to the ballpark because of “migraines”.

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Joey Votto (CIN)

I feel bad for Joey Votto, I really do. The guy has been an amazing baseball player since he came up with the Reds in 2007. But since that year, the Reds have only had a winning record three times, with only have two division titles in the last ten years. I understand that he is the face of their franchise and the guy who nobody in Cincinnati wants to see go, but you can’t help but feel bad for such a talented player being wasted on such a poor team.

Mike Trout (LAA)

Speaking of wasting a player’s talent, that is exactly what’s going on in Los Angeles. If only one of the players on this list could be traded, I would want it to be Mike Trout. Trout has been the best player in the MLB since his rookie year in 2012 – plain and simple. The outfielder has finished in the top two for MVP every single year he has been in the majors (winning the award twice), been an All-Star every season and has won a Silver Slugger every year. Add to that very good defense and you have the best player we have seen in a long time in the majors. The only issue with Mike Trout is that he is on the Angels. The Angels have been very inconsistent since Trout has entered the league, only making the playoffs once (2014). I understand that it would take a mountain of talented prospects in order to get Trout from the Angels, but this is a player who has put up stats similar to Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott and Willie Mays through this point in his career. To have that great of a player on a team as inconsistent as the Angels is a crime. He has carried this team, and even Trout can’t take them to the playoffs. It’s time for the Angels to understand that they are wasting the career of a player who will become one of the all-time greats if he keeps up this pace (and at 25 he shows no signs of slowing down). They need to let Trout join a team where he has the chance to lead a team to a championship.

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