Why Manchester City will Win the Premier League in 2017

On February 21, 2017, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City had just completed a fantastic comeback against AS Monaco. They led the game after some superb work by Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling, but then trailed after Radamel Falcao and the young Kylian Mbappe finished two superb chances, and battled back to eventually take a 5-3 lead against Monaco. The attack was great; the defense – not so much. Pep came out afterwards and said, ‘”They will attack more and more, and we have to defend better. We are not going to defend that result. We have to score goals. If we don’t score a goal in Monaco, we will be eliminated.” Monaco had three away goals for their efforts in Manchester, and Pep’s defense, which had leaked goals all throughout the campaign in league play as well, was still susceptible and had identified that early on.

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Unfortunately, whatever lead City had from the first leg quickly disappeared at the end of the Round of 16, and Pep Guardiola failed to reach the semifinals of the tournament for the first time in his career. On the other end of things, his side’s performance in the English Premier League was also shaky. Apart from the first six weeks in which they won every game, City was struggling to maintain pace with runaway leaders Chelsea, and runners-up Tottenham. All of a sudden, Pep had found himself in a precarious situation, and one he had not experienced since the spring of 2012, in his last season with FC Barcelona. The prospect of his first trophy-less season had begun to become reality for Pep, and in the May of 2017, it indeed became a reality. City finished the season without any silverware.

Such a season was never part of the plan for City Football Group, nor was it a part of the plan for Pep when he joined. His impeccable track record in Spain and Germany guaranteed success, and thus the failure to attain any significant silverware in 2017 obviously did not sit well with either party. For Pep especially, this season was hard to swallow. The displeasure of the season could be seen as soon as the season ended, and in June, many veteran players made their way out of City. Players who had won the Premiership in 2014 like Pablo Zabaleta, Willy Caballero, Gael Clichy, Bacary Sagna and Jesus Navas were all let go. In came Bernardo Silva, Kyle Walker, Ederson, Benjamin Mendy and Danilo. City’s business was quick and efficient, but also expensive. Walker and Mendy both broke the record for the most expensive defender signed, a record previously held by City’s own John Stones. Ederson also broke Gianluigi Buffon’s record transfer for a goalkeeper. However expensive all these moves were, they displayed Pep’s intent.

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One year after his arrival at City, Pep now has a squad that he can truly call his own. And as such, Manchester City now have a team that should be among the favorites for winning the Premier League. The main difference is the presence of quality, young fullbacks. Over the course of last season, both Walker and Mendy have grown into players that can stretch the width of the pitch, the way that Pep initially wanted to. Last season, with Kolarov paired with Sagna or Zabaleta, he opted to overload the midfield with these fullbacks. This placed more of an emphasis on the wingers to provide width. But now, having fullbacks that can theoretically do both, the responsibility of the wingers should be more focused on creating alongside the midfield while the fullbacks stretch the play. Danilo also becomes an important addition due to his ability to play on both sides of the pitch. While he is not the best option as a starting left-back, he can provide as a more than competent backup for Mendy and Walker simultaneously.

With younger, fresher fullbacks next to them, Otamendi and Stones should be able to perform much better this upcoming season. City’s defense leaked many goals last season due to the wings being overloaded by opponents. Otamendi was superb at times last season, but also made some careless errors. He had never played on a team that focused on possession as much as Pep Guardiola does. Both in Spain and Portugal, the teams he played on relied on a more classical approach to football. At times, it was end to end, and this became something that Argentina excelled at. As last season wore on, his concentration improved and the errors decreased. In Stones, Pep has a center back with the qualities of a midfielder. As seen in his time at Everton and his first season in Manchester, Stones can distribute the ball in between lines, read plays and initiate attacks. Now, with two fullbacks like Walker and Mendy, his job becomes a lot easier this season. Last season, there a lot of uncertainty existed regarding Stones’ play. He struggled many times to move the ball quickly and read danger. At the age of 22 and at a price tag of nearly £50 million on his head, it was safe to say that the pressure got to him. Now, with a season under his belt and with the guidance of Pep Guardiola, the 2017/18 season will be the season that he can truly start reaching his potential. With Ederson behind them, the center back pairing can excel knowing that they have a pair of solid hands to keep them alive. While Claudio Bravo was theoretically a quality purchase (given that he was an important fixture in a Barcelona squad that won back to back La Liga titles), he appeared shaky in England. The world-class keeper in Spain turned into a flop, and as the season wore on, he lost confidence and was dropped for Willy Caballero. This lack of belief and instability in a goalkeeper rubs off on those in front of him, which happened several times throughout the season.

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City’s midfield never really had any problems last season. Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva continued the stellar performances that they displayed in Manuel Pellegrini’s final season. They were fluid together, and under Pep, they managed to tear through any defense in front of them. De Bruyne managed to score five times and recorded 18 assists. Silva also provided a much-needed control for the team throughout the season, and scored four times and got seven assists. Both players are world-class. While Silva is getting a little older (turning 32 later this season), his quality will be vital for City in 2018. De Bruyne is arguably the best attacking midfielder in the game at the moment. His rise has been spectacular and he will only continue in this trajectory. İlkay Gündoğan is another name that will be important for City. When he joined from Borussia Dortmund, he had a fantastic start. He controlled play much like we saw Xavi do for Pep’s Barcelona side. He made deep runs to help set up and score goals, and his experience in Europe was vital. His injury setback, though, had a deep impact on City’s squad. Yaya Toure had to come in and fill the role, which he did spectacularly last season. Nonetheless, the team lost an important midfield figure. This season, if he stays fit alongside Toure, Gündoğan can provide a calmness in the midfield, while helping to create and help take the load off of De Bruyne and Silva. Toure will most likely be playing his last season at City. After a turbulent start to the season with some personal issues between himself and the manager, Toure apologized and took control of a midfield that needed his experience. He should be able to do the same this season but with a more stable back line behind him, and his responsibility will be more focused on maintaining control – something he’s always excelled at.

City’s attack has always been fluid, even when they struggled last season. Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling both grew into their roles last season. They started out a little timid, but as the season wore on, they stretched play like Guardiola wanted them to, and finished off several chances. However, most likely due to their age (Sane is 21 and Sterling is 22), they were largely inconsistent throughout the season. The understanding of what Pep wanted from them was a little lost, as was the case for the whole team. In preseason play early this season, both looked in sync with the rest of the team. For the upcoming season, both will have a better knowledge of what is expected of them, and with more consistent performances, their roles will help City lift the title. Sergio Agüero once again provides Pep with a world class finisher. While he also struggled with inconsistency, his performances have always helped the team. His ability to finish is unparalleled in the Premier League. His chemistry with the young Gabriel Jesus is also growing. Jesus only had a half season to acclimate to the Premier League, but when he had the chance, he took to England like fish in water. He was once again promising in preseason, and with Agüero by his side. He should continue to grow and eventually become a world-class striker himself.

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The one decision that Pep has made this summer that probably will most likely help him out the most is the addition of Bernardo Silva. Silva provides City with depth on the wings and in the middle. Silva was an important cog in Monaco’s system last season that took them to the Champions League semifinals. He can function both as a ball carrier and as a creator, being able to play through the center of the wing. He can almost play as a younger, less talented version of Messi for Pep. His versatility across both the forward line and the midfield can help Pep experiment with a false-nine system like in Barcelona, or the 4-1-4-1 he used in Munich. In both of these systems, Pep can replicate the great success that he had in Germany and Spain, and gives him the tactical variation that he greatly needed last season. The failures of Guardiola last season were attributed to him underestimating the Premier League. However, it seems as though this time last season, Pep overestimated the squad he had available. There were too many aging players who did not fit his plan, but he overlooked it and ultimately paid for it. This summer though, he maneuvered efficiently, cutting out the deadwood and making purchases that helped him implement his preferred playing style. And in doing so, the Premier League might see one of the most stacked teams assembled in recent history, and one that should go on and win the league title, and perhaps more this coming season, and in the future.

History to Now: The 2017 F1 Racing Deadlock, and What we Have Seen Thus Far

Just as the title seemed to slip away from Sebastian Vettel and Scuderia Ferrari’s hands, they came back in a strong manner than ever, securing a 1-2 finish in Hungary. Vettel recorded his 46th career victory and only his second at the Hungaroring, where his previous victory also came with Ferrari. Vettel’s victory took him to 202 points in the leaderboard, and helped him extend his lead in the Driver’s Championship to 14 points over Lewis Hamilton (188 points), heading into the summer break. His teammate, Kimi Raikkonen, had been struggling until the third qualifying session, but then finished strong throughout the weekend. Raikkonen was also faster than Vettel for most of the race, but with the process of overtaking to be a very difficult task in this race, he had to settle for a second place finish.

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If Scuderia Ferrari (318 points) is to win the Constructor’s Championship, Raikkonen must continue firing on all cylinders as they still trail Mercedes AMG Petronas (357 points) by a significant margin of 39 points. Prior to this race, Ferrari trailed Mercedes by 55 points, and results like these prove that the title race is far from over.

Despite the Hungaroring not being Vettel’s favorite track of the calendar, he delivered a dominating performance when it mattered most. Prior to the Hungarian Grand Prix, Hamilton had reduced Vettel’s lead in the championship to just a point after a historic fifth British Grand Prix win. Vettel achieved pole in qualifying at Hungary, and even after facing issues with the positioning of the steering wheel during the race, he brought in all of his experience to control every single lap. With overtaking as difficult as it can get at this circuit, Hamilton had to do it all if he was to take the lead in the Driver’s Championship.

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Hamilton tried valiantly, but the Ferrari’s pace proved to be too much for the Mercedes driver, who would end up finishing in fourth place- behind his teammate, Valtteri Bottas. Hamilton had been running in third, but since he could not get past any of the Ferraris, he kept his word by handing the place back to his teammate. After the race, Hamilton told reporters, “I am a man of my word,” indicating that he wants to win the Championship fair and square.

Hamilton had initially requested the team to let him pass because he had a faster pace than Bottas, and that was the only chance that Mercedes had to take some points away from Ferrari in that race.

Past Records

Impressive performances from Hamilton in GP2 helped him get signed by a top team like McLaren Mercedes in his very first season in F1. Hamilton had won the GP2 title in his first season in 2006 and was not short of impressive performances at McLaren. In 2007, Hamilton finished second in the Driver’s Championship in his rookie season in F1 before eventually winning the Driver’s Championship itself with McLaren the next season. After four unsuccessful years at McLaren from 2009 to 2012, he then shifted to Mercedes AMG Petronas in 2013, who have dominated the sport since 2014. At Mercedes AMG Petronas, he won the Driver’s Championship in 2014 and 2015, before losing the title to teammate Nico Rosberg in 2016.

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Unlike Hamilton, Vettel struggled initially, as he took a while to even make it into F1. However, after he had finally scratched the surface and made it in 2007, there was no turning back. He scored his first pole position and victory at the 2008 Italian Grand Prix with Toro Rosso, making him the youngest driver to ever win a race, and the only driver to ever win for Toro Rosso. His impressive performances at Toro Rosso helped him get signed by Red Bull Racing in 2009, the year which saw him finish second. He won his first F1 title with Red Bull Racing in 2010 by defeating two-time former World Champion, Fernando Alonso.

Fernando Alonso is considered to be one of the best drivers in the sport by many experts, and seeing Vettel beat him by the closest of margins did not change the mind of any critics. They believe that Vettel had a lucky escape. These critics did not seem to bother Vettel as he continued to impress by winning four consecutive titles at Red Bull Racing from 2010 to 2013. Furthermore, he won nine consecutive races, the longest streak ever, to win the 2013 Driver’s Championship.

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The Championship Until Now

After Mercedes AMG Petronas dominated the past three seasons from 2014 to 2016, winning both the Driver’s Cup and the Constructor’s Championship, they finally seem to have competition from a familiar face; none other than Scuderia Ferrari. Ferrari dominated the sport with Michael Schumacher, winning five consecutive titles from 2000 to 2004. They finally seem to have made a competitive car after not having won the Constructor’s Championship since 2008.

Before the start of the 2017 season, Mercedes again appeared as the favorites to win the Championship because of excellent testing runs. Ferrari improved significantly from previous seasons, but still seemed far off from the standards that Mercedes had set. Although Vettel won two out of the first four races with Hamilton and Botta (respectively), it was not until the Monaco Grand Prix that Vettel was a serious contender for the Driver’s Championship. After the Monaco Grand Prix, Vettel had a massive 25-point-lead over Hamilton. However, that lead reduced significantly after Hamilton won two out of the next four, with Vettel winning none.

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Just as the previous few seasons provided heated rivalries between the championship contenders in the plenty, this season seems to be the same. For the past three seasons, the rivalry was between Mercedes teammates Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton, with that rivalry reaching its peak last year. After the Azerbaijan Grand Prix incident between Hamilton and Vettel, it seems that the shades of the intensity in last year’s championship rivalry can be seen.

Vettel was seen colliding with Hamilton during the safety car period, and was deservedly penalized for his actions. However, Vettel would still slam Hamilton by telling his team on the radio that Hamilton break-tested him. Hamilton, on the other hand, mentioned Vettel’s driving as “disgusting” and “disgraceful,” clearly indicating the rivalry is beginning to get as heated as it can possibly get.

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After the rivalry reached its peak at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with a collision between the two strongest contenders for the Driver’s Championship, the next two races were pretty one-sided. Mercedes dominated the British Grand Prix and secured a 1-2 finish while Ferrari dominated the Hungarian Grand Prix with a 1-2 finish.

In the British Grand Prix, Ferrari faced tire issues with both Raikkonen and Vettel, who were running in a solid second and third place, respectively. The left front tire burst on the cars of both drivers, but despite the tire issues, Raikkonen managed to finish on the podium in third place. However, Vettel finished in a meager eighth place, thereby dropping vital points in the Championship to his fierce Mercedes rival.

The Championship Ahead

Vettel received three penalty points after the incident at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, taking the total tally of penalty points on his license to nine points. No other driver has ever received more penalty points on his license than Vettel has in the past year, and three more points would mean that he would receive a race ban.

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With all of the teams returning from a summer break in the coming days, Vettel looks to have settled his nerves and temperament, while Hamilton and Mercedes AMG Petronas will try their best to increase the pressure and push for a fourth consecutive Driver’s and Constructor’s title for Mercedes. While recent history of the past three seasons favors Mercedes, the overall dominance of the sport is on Scuderia Ferrari’s side. With nine races remaining, the next half of the season will surely be an intriguing battle, led by two heavyweights: Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton. The rivalry resumes at the Belgian Grand Prix on August 27.