It has been a crazy week in the world of Boston sports. The Red Sox, who had a record of 15-4 in August coming into last Thursday night’s game in Cleveland, went on a four game losing skid, including a sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. The Celtics pulled off a blockbuster trade that was finally completed after they resolved the concern over the condition of Isaiah Thomas’ hip. However, despite these developments, the Saturday news that Julian Edelman has a completely torn ACL is the lead story in Boston this week. This news did not come as much of a surprise to anyone who heard that Edelman had been carted off the field in Friday night’s preseason game against Detroit with a non-contact knee injury. Later that night, Adam Schefter reported that the Patriots believed the injury to be a torn ACL. Even with Edelman out for the season, anything short of a Super Bowl title for this Patriots team would be a disappointment because of their wide receiver depth to make up for the loss of the Kent State product. Aside from Edelman, the Patriots will have former Saints top option Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan, as well as undrafted rookie Austin Carr who showed flashes of talent in the preseason. Edelman’s injury shouldn’t have much of an impact on the regular season, and this team has enough talent to hypothetically replace his production in the postseason. However, the loss of Edelman has the potential to trip the Patriots up in a big game given his standing and his versatility within the Patriots offense.

Ever since Wes Welker signed with the Denver Broncos after the 2012 season, Julian Edelman has solidified himself as a staple of the Patriots offense. Over that time, he has become Tom Brady’s favorite receiver (discounting Gronk because of his tight end status), and his best friend. The go-to factor with Edelman cannot be overstated. He is the best third down receiver in football, leading the league in third down yardage and finishing second in third down receptions in 2016. When the Patriots won their recent championships, they relied heavily on converting in third down situations at a high clip throughout the seasons. In three of their last four Super Bowl-winning seasons (this stat was not recorded in 2001), the Patriots finished top five in the NFL in third down conversion percentage.

In their last two Super Bowls, New England dominated their opponents in third down conversions, largely thanks to Julian Edelman. In Super Bowl 49 against Seattle, the Patriots converted on eight of fourteen third down attempts, while the Seahawks converted three of ten attempts. The story was the same in Super Bowl 51. The Patriots converted seven of fourteen (50%) third down attempts, while the Falcons converted just one of eight (12%). Third down success can serve as a pretty accurate barometer for the Patriots’ success overall, and without Brady’s go-to receiver in the slot, I question how effective New England will be on third down. 

The offense will have to go through drastic changes to make up for the loss of Edelman. There is no player in New England or in free agency that could possibly fill the role of Julian Edelman. Instead, Belichick and Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels will have to fundamentally change how the offensive is run. Instead of relying on Edelman to move the chains on third and long, the Patriots must perform more on first and second downs to alleviate the pressure. With Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan at the top of the depth chart at wide receiver, the Patriots will try to incorporate the deep ball into their offense. If the Patriots’ offense is centered on the deep ball, they will not win the championship. I do not trust a 40-year-old Tom Brady to deliver deep passes with the same consistency that he did in his prime, even if he is indeed the G.O.A.T. The only year when the offense was centered on Brady throwing the deep ball ended with him recording 50 touchdown passes, but no Super Bowl ring. They are better off relying on Brady to make pinpoint 10-15 yard throws and using his brain to dissect defensive schemes.

Even with a new offensive game plan, I am not sure that the Patriots have reliable weapons to win it all this year. With Edelman out for the year, New England will rely on Rob Gronkowski to stay healthy for the full season, a rarity over the course of his career. In his six years in the NFL, Gronkowski has only stayed fully healthy for two seasons. One of them was his rookie campaign in which he only made 11 starts. I do not trust Gronk to remain healthy for the entire season, and an offense without Gronkowski and Edelman could come to be the nail in the coffin for the 2017 Patriots season. There are other concerns in the Patriots’ offense as well. 2016 fourth round draft pick Malcolm Mitchell flashed talent last season, but also showed some injury concerns and is hurt again this preseason. Danny Amendola would be a potential fill-in for Julian Edelman, but he has injury concerns as well. In his eight seasons in the NFL, he has played 16 games twice. If we were to get the same amount of touches as Edelman, he would likely not last the full season.

Despite potential injury risks, the Patriots have enough talent in their receiving core to make up for Julian Edelman’s production. Barring another injury, I do not believe that Edelman’s absence will prevent the Patriots from reaching the AFC Championship Game, or even another Super Bowl. However, I have concerns about what will happen in the Super Bowl without Julian Edelman. Out of the five Super Bowls won by the Patriots franchise, every single one has been close. The Patriots’ 34-28 overtime win over the Falcons was the biggest point differential in a Patriots Super Bowl victory. If the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl, it will be close, and this is what scares me. Brady has weapons this year, but we have seen wide receivers get shut out of the offense because Brady does not trust them. With new characters, young players attempting to solidify themselves in the offense, injury risks and no go-to receiver in sight, I am not sure about who will deliver for the reigning champs with the Super Bowl on the line.

It’s not a dream. Football season is only three weeks away, and with that comes the resurgence of one of the most competitive online sports leagues in the world; fantasy football. Whether it’s for a weekly league or for the full season, it’s always a scramble for team owners who are trying to determine which players will be your savior and which ones will ride your bench. It’s easy to be confident in drafting and starting your all-stars like Aaron Rodgers, Le’Veon Bell or Julio Jones week in and week out, barring injury.

But what about the players who we inevitably pass over each year, who then go on to exceed all expectations we had of them? I’m talking about guys like Matt Ryan who wasn’t ranked as one of the highest QBs in the 2016 fantasy draft, yet ended up finishing in the top three. I’m talking about Melvin Gordon who had an awful rookie season, but then vaulted into the top echelon in the 2015-2016 season. These surprises happen year after year. It was DeMarco Murray in 2014, Cam Newton in 2015 and as previously mentioned, Matt Ryan in 2016. While these are just a few players to have had incredible seasons, others can come out of the woodwork and lead your fantasy team into the playoffs. Looking forward to the 2017-18 season, we should be expecting to see some more players have breakout seasons.

Tyreek Hill is a name that people should be eagerly watching out for.

Hill burst onto the scene last year in electrifying fashion, displaying unstoppable speed and agility. While his overall receiving stats weren’t all that impressive, finishing with 61 receptions, 593 yards and six TDs, Hill also showed his explosiveness as a kick returner, punt returner and change-of-pace running back.

Hill is a jack-of-all-trades type of player and a walking highlight reel. Now, with the departure of Jeremy Maclin, Hill shouldn’t have much competition to fill the Chiefs’ WR1 role. Expect Hill to be much more involved in the receiving game and to be a lot more than a utility player, even with Alex Smith throwing to him.

His usage on special plays will take a hit, but he’ll be heavily involved on the offensive side of things. The ceiling for Hill is quite impressive – his mix of speed, strength, agility and vision makes him a threat to score every time he takes a snap.

Robert Kelley is another name that stands out.

Was his rookie season anything to celebrate? Probably not, but at least it’s nothing to sneeze at. He started nine games, finishing with 704 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and rushing for six touchdowns. He will likely be hungry after coming off of a sub-par 2016 season. He won’t be able to fall into the sophomore slump that Todd Gurley fell victim too.

The Redskins did sign another running back in the fourth round of the draft in Samaje Perine. He was a stud at the University of Oklahoma, amassing 4,122 yards in his three years there. Perine is a strong and fast runner, but there’s a fair amount of adjustment that he needs to make before he’ll be ready for the NFL. We know he’s strong, but he’s also raw and unproven.

Robert Kelley will have the first shot to be the starter for the Redskins, and I expect to see Kelley feel more comfortable in his starting role than he was last year. He has talked about watching film and changing his running style to be more patient like that of Le’Veon Bell. If Kelley can execute, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

Finally, enter Terrance West, the running back for the Baltimore Ravens who could be in prime position for a breakout season.

Healthy for all 16 games last season, West started 13 of them. He finished with five rushing touchdowns and 774 yards on 193 attempts, averaging just about four yards per carry.

Going into the 2017 season, West will be the starter from the first snap. Additionally, there are a few other aspects looking up for West. With the recent injury to Joe Flacco – who could potentially miss week one – the Ravens could be looking to run the ball more and be a bit more conservative with their cannon arm quarterback.

Furthermore, Baltimore’s schedule looks very promising for rushers as nine of 16 regular season games will be played against teams who ranked in the bottom ten last season in rush defense. While at a first glance, the Ravens backfield may look crowded especially with the newly signed Danny Woodhead, it’s not as competitive as it might seem. John Harbaugh has a lot of confidence in the 26-year-old and expects him to be the workhorse.

Harbaugh has also mentioned that Kenneth Dixon has the same workhorse potential; however, Dixon is suspended for the first five games – immediately decreasing his value. Woodhead is a nice addition to the Ravens backfield but will ultimately only be used as a change of pace and third down back.

Each year, without fail, players surprise us. I guess that’s part of being a good fantasy team owner – looking for value that can exceed expectations. However, we continually follow the draft projections thinking that things will be different. While a lot of the time these players end up working out just fine, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that they don’t always live up to the expectations that we place on them. As we enter the new NFL season, remember to keep in mind that some players will be undervalued and it’s your job as a fantasy owner to find those underrated players and lead your team to victory.

Obviously draft smart and don’t take players in the first round that have a good chance of being available in the fourth or fifth rounds, but remember to keep an eye open for those players that could have breakout seasons and surprise us all. Oh, and don’t take a kicker till the last round. Please.