Sure, you’ve got players like Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger; rookie phenoms who are taking the league by storm by hitting (numerous) home runs, making ASG appearances, and being serious contenders in the ROTY and MVP races (Judge even leads the MLB in SLG and OPS and ranks third in OBP and fourth in R). And yeah, you’ve got players like Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper; veterans who are said to be having the best seasons of their lives, leading their respective teams to potential playoff runs. Don’t forget about Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer; lights-out, Cy Young level pitchers who are continuing their superlative forms by leading the MLB in Strikeouts, Wins, and ERA. And of course, who can forget teams like the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks; underdog squads who have risen up after several years of turmoil to have breakout seasons, become poised for deep postseason runs and have fans raving (the Astros being 65-33 and the D-backs 56-42).

On the contrary, you’ve got players and teams that have been struggling, or performing at a mediocre level throughout the first half of the season. Examples include Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles and Jake Arrieta along with his Chicago Cubs.

Don’t count these players and teams out just yet, though. As the second half of the 2017 season gets underway, some of these players and teams are set to break out and finish 2017 in grand fashion.

These players and teams are called sleepers. In essence, a ‘sleeper’ is a player or team that succeeds when no one thought they/it would. Oftentimes in sports, sleepers begin seasons quite sluggishly, without really impacting either the stat sheet or the fans. By the end of that same season, however, these sleepers have defied the odds and the critics by performing tremendously well. Listed below are the sleepers of the MLB in 2017–watch out for these players/teams in the second half of the season as they are projected to bounce back!

Which Players/Teams Are We Not Talking About?

Jake Arrieta (CHC)

Despite posting an ordinary 9-7 record and 4.11 ERA thus far, Arrieta still looks like he will finish 2017 well and lead the Cubs to a good place at the end of the season. You’ve got to remember: both the Cubs and Arrieta have struggled before finding success (the Cubs, well, for 108 years before winning the World Series, and Arrieta’s three poor seasons with the Orioles before going 40-14 in his past two seasons with the Cubs). Arrieta is experienced and has his SO and IP up (he has struck out 111 over 114 IP), so with the likes of Joe Maddon, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, Arrieta should end the year near 14 wins and 10 losses and under a 4.00 ERA if he sticks to his natural fastball-12/6 curve game and keeps racking up the Ks and IP.

Chicago Cubs

43-45. Yeah, the defending champions weren’t too hot to start the year. They’ve been sidetracked with the injuries of Bryant, Hendricks and Zobrist, and that spark from 2016 hasn’t just clicked yet. But again, they are the defending champs, and they’ve retained most of that hardworking and passionate roster that won the World Series last year. They won’t give up on their season just yet, and they’re already back at 51-46. And they shouldn’t give up, either, with Kris Bryant projected to have another solid 35 HR season, Anthony Rizzo to have another dominating 38 HR, 105 RBI year, Jake Arrieta to end about 14-10 from that 8-7 (if my prediction is correct) record he started with, and the hard-work and experience of manager Joe Maddon (Jon Lester is also expected to break out). Whenever I think of today’s Chicago Cubs, I think about 90+ wins, and a definite playoff berth in the weak NL Central.

Josh Donaldson (TOR)

=At the moment, Donaldson, is hitting a mediocre .238 with 9 HR and 29 RBI, mainly because he has been out with knee and calf injuries. However, the 31-year old former MVP is experienced enough to know how to come back after a tough first half and finish strong; all he has to do is somewhat replicate the seasons he’s been having since 2013. Plus, someone’s got to perform on the struggling 2017 Blue Jays. I see Donaldson ending 2017 batting .270 with 25 HR and 80 RBI, with a bit more SO than he prefers (106).

Kyle Freeland (COL)

Before anybody knew about the rampage that Cody Bellinger would go on, Kyle Freeland was a starting pitcher that was expected to be in serious contention for NL ROTY. However, the stat sheets have portrayed something else for the 24-year old. At the end of the first half of the year, Freeland is 10-7 and has given up a LOT of home runs. Despite this, he has kept his ERA down to a mere 3.64, and even took a no-no into the ninth inning in the last game before the All Star Break. Freeland definitely has the talent and the stuff to be successful. With some development and some encouragement from senior players like Nolan Arenado, I see the southpaw finishing 15-10 with around a 3.90 ERA.

Manny Machado (BAL)

.238 AVG. 18 HR. 50 RBI. The O’s star third baseman has been struggling this year. In previous years, Machado has averaged .270 with 20 HR and 60 RBI at this point in the year. Don’t count Manny out just yet, though. Someone has got to perform on this struggling Orioles squad, and if anyone will, it will definitely be the vivacious and passionate Machado. Also, his fantasy projections show him finishing with 35 HR and 100 RBI, so you’ve got to expect that he’ll wake up for the second half of the year.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Rays have secretly been doing extremely well as of late. After starting off slowly, the Rays finished 45-43 at the end of the first half of the season, and currently stand at 51-48. If the season were to end today, they’d be tied with the Royals to face the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card. I expect the Rays (behind Kevin Cash, Logan Morrison and Chris Archer) to get well ahead of the Yanks in the AL East (the Yankees, I feel, will suffer despair this season behind poor management, poor pitching, and tons of injuries to their offense. They over-performed in the first half.) and secure themselves a playoff spot for the 2017 postseason.

Gary Sanchez (NYY)

Gary Sanchez will be one of the few Yankees that will shine to end the rest of 2017. Despite being out for a month early in the year with a strained abductor muscle, Gary Sanchez ended the first half of the season well, batting .265 with 14 HR and 46 RBI. Although the rest of the Yankees will suffer demise behind poor management and pitching (I feel that Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia will not finish well this year), and although the rest of the Yankees’ offense and bullpen won’t click as well as they did back in May (they may not even have a winning record this year, let alone a playoff berth), Sanchez’s powerful swing and ability to hit strikes will carry him onto a continuation of his rookie season: batting .273 with 27 HR and about 80 RBI.

AL Central (Minnesota Twins/Kansas City Royals)

Everything is up in air for the AL Central. With the Cleveland Indians not performing as well as they’d hoped, opportunity arises for both the Twins and the Royals, teams that ended the first half of the year with mediocre results. If either of these teams is going to stun anyone, they both must play behind their veterans (Joe Mauer, Ervin Santana, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, etc.), win the crucial inter-division games, and the Royals especially must play like they did in 2015. All of this, in my opinion, is more than possible.

NL West (Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies)

Just like the AL Central, a lot is still pending in the NL West. Sure, the Dodgers should run away with the division title, but both the Rockies and the D-backs have ended the first half of the year with very good records, and are serious contenders for playoff berths. Not to mention Clayton Kershaw’s recent injury. I feel that both teams will make it to at least a wild card berth this year; all they have to do is (much like the teams in the AL Central) play behind their senior players (Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado) and not lose their way either due to inexperience or unfortunate events. One way they can do this is by taking the rest of their season game by game, and correcting the mistakes that they make from every single game.

Are You Awake Yet?

While the Trade Deadline looms two weeks ahead, the dominoes have already begun to fall on the MLB trade front: In the past week, the Cubs, Nationals and D-backs have all bolstered their Major League rosters in recent deals. As of Tuesday night, the latest deal has surfaced, involving the Chicago White Sox and the mighty New York Yankees.

Yes, the recently scuffling Yankees have struck a deal to make a run at a 2017 playoff spot. Swapping with the rebuilding Chicago White Sox, the Yanks have acquired 2015 HR Derby Champion 3B Todd Frazier, along with RHP relievers David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle. Going to the ChiSox in the trade is #30 ranked MLB prospect OF Blake Rutherford, along with prospects LHP Ian Clarkin, OF Tito Polo and struggling veteran reliever Tyler Clippard.

By examining what the Yanks surrender in this deal, one realizes that the price paid was no small sum. Certainly, the biggest name to leave the Bronx is Rutherford. Their first round (#33 overall) pick in 2016, Rutherford is a 20-year old with 5-tool potential, who has sustained a career .303 batting average in 103 professional games to date. Clarkin, a southpaw from Class A, was the team’s first round selection in 2013, while Tito Polo was PTBNL in the Yanks’ trading of Ivan Nova to Pittsburgh last summer. Finally, Tyler Clippard, a once steady but now struggling bullpen arm, is headed to the Windy City to provide some salary relief for the Bombers, who would have paid him over 6 million by the end of 2017.

Although seeing Rutherford go is difficult, the Yankees should rest easy knowing that the farm system is still brimming with talent, and GM Brian Cashman hauled in a solid trio of players. Perhaps the best player to date in this deal, and the one least known by the casual fan, is RHP reliever Tommy Kahnle. Touching 100 MPH on the radar gun, Kahnle has pitched to an absurd 15.00 K/9 to go along with strong ratios and a team friendly contract, remaining under team control until 2021. Curiously enough, the Yankees drafted Kahnle in 2010, and therefore must feel very confident in the skillset they’ve now paid for. Although former Major League pitcher LaTroy Hawkins once deemed Kahnle, “one of the worst teammates I’ve ever had in my life,” the Yanks can’t complain about the talent they are receiving via Tommy Kahnle’s arrival.

The second reliever, and more well-known of the two arms traded, is former Yankee and White Sox closer David Robertson. Yes, you read that right. For the third time in two years, the Yankees have reacquired a relief pitcher they once owned (Adam Warren and Tyler Clippard in 2016). Robertson, compared to the others aforementioned, is perhaps the best talent of the three. In his 2 ½ seasons since leaving the Yanks for Chicago, Robertson has collected 84 saves while posting a strong 3.04 ERA and 11.9 K/9. Now rejoining the club that drafted him in the 17^th round in 2006, Robertson will likely lose out on save chances to Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, but will still provide flexibility and stability in the 6^th, 7^th or 8^th inning.

Finally, we can assess the final piece of this deal, and the one that has certainly generated the most buzz across the industry. Courted on the same day by the rival Boston Red Sox, infielder Todd Frazier has instead found a home in pinstripes. Formerly of the Reds and White Sox, Frazier may best be known for his 2015 Home Run derby victory, and for his love of the long-ball in general (40 HR in 2016, three straight seasons of 29+ HR). On the surface, he represents an upgrade to a Yankees’ 1B group that has underwhelmed (Chris Carter, Tyler Austin, amongst others). However, his body of work in 2017 suggests that he may provide more of what Carter, who was recently released by the club, brought to the table. Take a second and try to associate these stat lines with either Todd Frazier or Chris Carter.

Player A is the newly acquired Frazier, while B is the recently released Carter. Although Frazier certainly surpasses Carter in most stats above (let’s ignore Carter’s 1-0 lead in triples), by projecting Carter’s production over the same amount of at-bats that Frazier has had, the numbers are much more similar (.201 BA, 12 HR, 40 RBI for Carter over 284 AB). In this light, Frazier only represents a handful more homers and RBI than what Carter would have provided, making him a questionable solution to a glaring need at first base. Furthermore, looking back on 2016’s numbers makes a Chris Carter comparison inevitable.

While Frazier has the steadier track record and the slight edge in 2017, last season provides a worrying sign for Frazier’s new employer. Carter, whom the Yanks felt was no longer worthy of a roster spot let alone a spot in the lineup, somewhat outperformed Frazier last season. Not only was he the NL home run leader in 2016 with 41, but also surpassed Frazier in many crucial categories: 2B, HR, walks, OBP, SLG, and OPS.

Not only should we examine Frazier’s move in the Bronx from a statistical perspective, but also from a team philosophy standpoint. The Yankees, as they stand today, are 10-21 in their last 30 games after starting a blistering 38-23. While their power hitting carried them through many of their victories (they rank 7^th in baseball with 136 HR), the Yanks have grossly underperformed when it comes to situational hitting. In their Monday night loss to Minnesota, the Yankees had a man on 1^st and 2^nd with no one out in the top of the 8^th, the score knotted at 2-2. Rather than laying down a bunt to advance the runners, Matt Holliday grounded into a double play, and no runs were scored. A similar situation almost cost them the game in their 16-inning affair with Boston this past weekend. Chase Headley decided not to bunt, and by at-bat’s end struck out, and no runs came across. While these represent just a couple of instances, they are microcosms of the Yankees’ sometimes foolhardy approach in big spots: swing big, and strike out. While advanced analytics suggest that bunting is not always advantageous, Frazier comes in with a strikeout rate north of 20%, and just one sac bunt over the past two seasons. A strikeout prone, all-or-nothing option may not be what the Yankees need in big situations.

Rather than looking past the name on the jersey, the Yanks may very well have acquired more of what they’ve already discarded: Chris Carter, unworthy of a roster spot, lines up statistically to Frazier’s past season plus. Perhaps the move for Frazier was a dual-functioning move for the Yankees: not only did they add his bat in the lineup, but they pried him away from the Red Sox’s grasp, who could have really used his power (Boston ranks 26^th in HR with 97). But while Kahnle and Robertson may help bring back flashes of last year’s dominant collection of relievers, “No Run DMC”, there may have been no need to pay the extra price to get slightly improved Chris Carter. After all, it’s only been a week-plus since the Yanks have had him, and they weren’t the biggest of fans.

 

*All stats courtesy of baseballreference.com